Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.215433 2.337863 2.469978 2.624399 2.801638 3.000895 3.245142
2025-08-10 2.049605 2.195678 2.358882 2.557500 2.796781 3.081646 3.456475
2025-08-17 1.963557 2.125725 2.311438 2.544272 2.835407 3.198446 3.706329
2025-08-24 1.899500 2.072434 2.274175 2.532958 2.866262 3.298169 3.935793
2025-08-31 1.848969 2.029710 2.243685 2.523317 2.892481 3.387015 4.153680
2025-09-07 1.821124 2.011003 2.239039 2.542591 2.953516 3.523518 4.456135
2025-09-14 1.755176 1.942008 2.167469 2.469480 2.881877 3.461013 4.427473
2025-09-21 1.724791 1.915021 2.146535 2.460133 2.895084 3.519821 4.601828
2025-09-28 1.685167 1.874673 2.106414 2.422313 2.864408 3.507840 4.647430
2025-10-05 1.686021 1.884285 2.129506 2.468914 2.954421 3.684662 5.055115
2025-10-12 1.696260 1.905338 2.167205 2.535906 3.076745 3.922640 5.630792
2025-10-19 1.677641 1.888559 2.154179 2.531001 3.090024 3.980264 5.843064
2025-10-26 1.662643 1.876700 2.148093 2.536718 3.121464 4.074361 6.164770
2025-11-02 1.622358 1.831000 2.095447 2.473959 3.043112 3.969588 5.997389
2025-11-09 1.603608 1.812591 2.078483 2.461105 3.041160 3.998240 6.154054
2025-11-16 1.586898 1.796231 2.063515 2.450066 3.040600 4.027605 6.314172
2025-11-23 1.571932 1.781630 2.050271 2.440612 3.041291 4.057716 6.478398
2025-11-30 1.568265 1.781389 2.055944 2.458054 3.084568 4.167607 6.878175
2025-12-07 1.533155 1.739252 2.003884 2.389651 2.986306 4.004712 6.478758
2025-12-14 1.521206 1.727306 1.992568 2.380554 2.983812 4.022900 6.601393
2025-12-21 1.499990 1.702815 1.963705 2.344972 2.936991 3.954363 6.465253
2025-12-28 1.508604 1.717523 1.988222 2.387984 3.019073 4.135508 7.091787
2026-01-04 1.523778 1.740962 2.024932 2.449829 3.134920 4.394110 8.081205